Can there be a Nigerian Revolution?
Since his release from the Nigerian Department of State Services’ detention, Omoyele Sowore, a journalist and one-time presidential aspirant, has continually called for a revolution using the hashtag #revolutionNow on his social media (twitter especially). What Sowore means precisely by a revolution is not clear because when the DSS unlawfully arrested him for the same reason in 2019, his lawyer argued that Sowore was purely calling for a ‘peaceful protest’. However, going by the information on the movement’s Twitter bio, it is safe to say that Sowore means a revolution in the literal sense. For him, ‘it is time to organise and revolt against a bad system and dictatorship in Nigeria’. He has gone as far as setting the 5th of August as a day of ‘mass action against Buhari’s government’. Indeed, virtually every individual who is tired of Nigeria socio-economic hardship would agree that to engender a change; there is a need for a popular uprising that would overthrow the inept government of the myopic and corrupt political elites. But is there any prospect of such a revolution happening?
The success of a revolution is, to a great extent, contingent on mass mobilisation. The Sudanese revolution of 2019 was victorious in deposing Omar Al-Bashir as a result of the mass mobilisation of the Sudanese people. Also, the events of the Arab Spring, that saw the overthrow of age-long despots across the Middle East, were successful because of a shared moral outrage against the Authoritarian system. Currently, the RevolutionNow movement does not have the bottom-up mobilisation capacity to pull off such political change that we saw in Sudan and the Middle East. Years of political apathy in Nigeria has led to a situation in which the masses are less concerned with demonstrations. Also, Nigerians are slow to organise and hardly protest due to the fear of being met with violence by the state’s security apparatus. They would instead remain subservient to the current regime than give up personal security. Thus, If there is going to be a revolution in Nigeria, the vanguard of such a revolution would have a hard time garnering widespread support for the cause.
Moreover, to garner popular support for a revolutionary movement, the personality of the revolutionary is vital. For instance, Lenin’s personality largely influenced the victory of the Bolshevik Revolution in historical Russia. The same argument can be put forward for the role of Mao in the Chinese Revolution. In the Nigerian case, Sowore seems to be the revolutionary but has done little to ensure a higher degree of organisation. Even the most backward section of the society needs to be educated on the reason Nigeria needs a revolution. But Sowore’s activities have been majorly on the internet reaching only 46.6% of the population, leaving out the 53.4% who do not have internet access oblivious to the call for political change. Even among the 46.6% who have access to Sowore’s activities, opinions about him remain divided. While some believe he is genuinely a freedom fighter, some have seen him as a purveyor of fake news, a puppet of the elites who are at loggerheads with the current administration, and as someone who is merely driven by personal interest. These sentiments have largely impinged on his ability to gain popularity and would affect the RevolutionNow movement’s capacity to mobilise the masses.
It is worthy to note that in some cases, formidable resistance groups start in industries in the form of trade unions. A revolutionary leader then capitalises on the activities of the trade union to achieve the desired change. Even though Nigeria is not a heavily industrial country, trade unions have managed to emerge. However, the prospect of a political group that would revolt against the existing system, starting from the Nigerian trade union, remains very little. With nepotism and cronyism eating deep like a cankerworm into the system, some of the Trade Union leaders are either active politicians or adherents of the ruling party. This makes it rather difficult to revolt against the government. Besides, ethnicity and tribalism keep playing a divisive role in Nigeria politics keeping at bay the possibility of a revolutionary change. The coalition of Northern groups’ outright rejection of the first RevolutionNow protest as unbeneficial to the northerners and the Biafra secessionist group dissociating itself and the Easterners from the same exemplify this.
Thus, for the foreseeable future, I do not see a Nigerian revolution materialising. Political apathy, the heterogeneity of the Nigerian society, the division of Nigeria along ethnic and religious cleavages and the absence of a genuine revolutionary agitation make a Nigerian revolution, as envisioned by the RevolutionNow movement, a fantasy. All we can hope for is political and socio-economic reforms that would push Nigeria towards more democratic governance.
